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May CPI fell to 3.2%. That is faster disinflation than the Fed's own projections.

The Fed's March projections showed CPI ending 2026 around 3.5%. May is already at 3.2%, with half the year still to go. Either the projections were too conservative, or the oil price collapse is doing more disinflationary work than expected. Either way, it pushed the Fed into a dovish hold on June 18 sooner than its own forecasts implied. Inflation falling faster than planned is not a problem, but it does mean the rate path keeps getting revised in one direction.

The Fed eased its tone on June 18 without easing rates

The June 18 FOMC held at 3.75% but Powell's language turned notably dovish, and the dot plot moved to show a cut by year end. Markets at record highs got exactly the signal they wanted: September is live. That is a clean validation of the lower yields and higher equity prices that had already done much of the easing work. The risk now flips. The question is no longer whether Powell will disappoint, but whether a single 25bp cut is already more than priced into markets sitting at all-time highs.

India's gold import bill is running at $72 billion annually

India's FY26 gold import bill came in at roughly $72 billion, second only to crude oil. Most of it is timed around weddings and festivals. Unlike oil, gold does not generate energy or run factories. It sits in vaults and jewellery boxes. But from the rupee's perspective, a dollar spent on gold and a dollar spent on crude look identical. The trade deficit impact is the same. The RBI cannot distinguish between the two.